It took about 25 years for the ARPA initiative to evolve into the web and about 10 years before the advent of techniques and technologies arose that make up web 2.0. Although it’s a bit early, we’ll probably start to see the momentum around web 3.0 before the end of the decade. Web 2.0 was a bottom-up movement and
- Fixing healthcare – an avalanche of costs is breaking current systems, whether in the countries like the
- Enabling virtual shoring – organizations will want to improve their use of offshoring, outsourcing and physically separated staff. “Virtual shoring” in virtual worlds can help provide the answer through better collaboration and greatly reduced travel costs.
- Bank of the Future – firms and individuals will continue to strive for new ways to raise capital, manage liquidity and hedge risk. Retail consumers will want a richer and interactive experience provided that simplifies their lives through use of technology, not a branch. Institutions will want a richer technology experience too – as well as the ability to bring in information from all types of sources in the decisioning process.
On the supply side, the fundamental change will be open source, globalization and technology exponentiation factors.
In areas such as health care, we’ll see these factors work together. A virtual treatment room may be a way to reduce cost by providing access to. Increasingly individuals don’t have pensions and they will look to have innovative product options that make long term health care affordable.2 technology areas look to stand out that will support these new models:
- User Interactivity – the current interface needs a major upgrade. Visualization will become much, much richer and collaboration easier.
- Information Development – information currency will continue to get more valuable. This will be driven by more systems and types content, greater abstraction levels and that increasingly decisions will be made in an automated fashion independent of human intervention.
So what might if look like? Think of an enhanced version of Second Life combined with everything Google is doing on steroids. Second Life for individuals to act in new virtual communities for commerce, healthcare and education; Google to link it back to the real world. If this sounds far off, its not. Look at what organizations such as IBM, Dell and ABN Amro are doing in the virtual world. Some of its very early (and some would argue PR oriented) but its happening.
September 16th, 2007 at 9:42 pm
Sean,
You make an excellent observation here. I think in the shorter term, frameworks like Silverlight, Adobe Flex and Java FX will change the way we use web pages. HTML is on its way out. These platforms offer richer visual experiences when surfing web pages. The evolution of the visual aspect of information sharing and collaboration will evolve, as you point out, to virtual spaces. I think in 5 years Second Live will look archaic to us, and the the new virtual spaces will add significant value and cost savings to businesses.
September 17th, 2007 at 6:46 am
Yes I think we’ll see incredible changes to the interface in this timeframe. One of the immediate business benefits will be to reduce travel by enabling enhanced collaboration. Beyond cost savings and reducing travel load on employees, the environmental benefits provide a huge upside. We are just starting to see this in Europe, as some companies are cutting back on travel specifically to reduce their carbon footprint.